https://www.kaggle.com/code/jonahdlubin/keep-em-separated

Keep ‘Em Separated: How Pre-Snap Movement Contributes to Receiver Openness examines how pre-snap motion, athleticism, and route-cover interactions influence a receiver’s ability to create separation from defenders. Traditional methods often overlook the impact of offensive scheming on receiver openness, so this study introduces a novel approach to measuring separation using an aggregated openness score over multiple frames of a play.

Using an XGBoost model and SHAP values, we quantify the contributions of pre-snap movement, athletic ability, and route-cover interactions to receiver openness. The results highlight that pre-snap motion significantly enhances separation. The study also provides player-level insights, identifying receivers who benefit most from motion, and team-level analysis, revealing which NFL teams optimize pre-snap movement effectively.

By distinguishing between raw route-running skill and schematic advantages, this model provides a more nuanced evaluation of receiver performance, aiding in player assessment, free agency decisions, and game planning.